Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 3 – Polls show that
countries around the world not only have stopped loving or even respecting
Russia and Putin but are increasingly ill-disposed to both, Liliya Shevtsova
says, a trend that limits Russia’s options however much some in Moscow think
they can ignore the attitudes of others or can compel them to change by force
alone.
“Even those nations which earlier
experienced to us romantic feelings such as the Germans have been cured of that,”
the Russian analyst says. “Russia has lost the sympathy of the world community
over the last two decades, but a sharp change to dislike occurred after our Crimean
‘gambit’” (ehorussia.com/new/node/16230).
A Pew Research Center poll last year
found, Shevtsova points out, that 40 percent of those polled in countries
around the world are now critical of Russia, with higher figures in Europe and
Israel. Only three countries – Vietnam,
Greece and the Philippines – were more positive than negative about Russia.
And the international community also
had a negative view of Vladimir Putin, with 78 percent of Europeans saying that
they do not trust the Russian president to behave correctly in international
affairs. And only in four countries –
Tanzania, Greece, Vietnam, and the Philippines – had populations with a more
positive than negative view of the Kremlin leader.
As for the United States, only 13
percent of Americans now have a positive view of Putin, down from 42 percent in
2002. Similar if not quite as dramatic
declines have occurred in European countries and elsewhere as well, Shevtsova
says.
What is especially galling for many in
Moscow is that the international decline in positive views of Russia and Putin
has occurred even has the world views China more positively. Now, the Russian
analyst says, most people around the world view the US and China as the leaders,
“already without Russia” and “instead of the triumvirate people in Moscow dream
about.”
China is increasingly its positive
image not only relative to Russia but also relative to the United States. The
Pew surveys showed that the number of countries in which the US is more popular
than China had fallen in recent years from 25 to 12.
“Of
course,” Shevtsova continues, “we can ignore this lack of sympathy from the rest
of the world. As a rule, people don’t love the strong of this world. But they
respect them. Russia, however, already cannot compete on this basis with China
let alone the United States. And that has consequences even if the Kremlin
doesn’t want to acknowledge them.
She
points out that “having introduced a sanctions regime against Russia, the West
has limited for the Kremlin the chance to use other instruments of influence,
including force in particular. The other states, including China, are not burning
with a desire to help Russia break out of the sanctions ghetto into which the
West has driven Russia.”
Indeed,
there are increasing doubts that Russia will risk “demonstrating power” lest it
be faced by even more sanctions. Moscow is already compelled “not to take note
of the fact that its allies (in particular) Kazakhstan are building bridges
with its competitor the United States” or that other countries like Israel can
take actions Russia doesn’t like with impunity.
In
this context, any use of force in order to imitate great power status will
backfire on Russia, Shevtsova says. “Of
course, one can agree to assume the role of an outsider state and be ready to
wander through the world” for the next centuries. But any such stance will lead
to Russia ceasing to be a player in world events.
But
that raises an even more immediate problem: how can the current Russian regime
remain in power if it rejects such an international role, especially as it has
made the reclaiming of exactly that great power status the basis of its
legitimacy? Unless Moscow changes
course, it almost certainly isn’t going to like the answer.
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